AGB Footy

WE'LL NEVER START, START, START...

Update! The AGB: First with the big stories.

CAT BALLYHOO

This is not the first omen:

Geelong player arrested

The Geelong Football club has confirmed a senior player has been arrested over a scuffle involving police on the eve of the Cats bid to win their first premiership since 1963.

"Defender David Johnson was involved in an incident outside a Geelong night club last night. The police were called and are investigating the matter." Geelong spokesman Kevin Diggerson said in a statement today.

It's just another catalyst for another gut feeling that tomorrow won't be the catwalk Geelong fans seem to be anticipating.

Chip Le Gronday in the Australia:

Pressure cooker sears Geelong

WHEN Brisbane was at the height of its powers in 2003, anyone who spent grand final week at the Gabba would have seen a club comfortable with itself.

The team was confident in where it was headed and convinced in what the result would be. Walking away at the end of that week it was clear the Lions would win a third consecutive premiership.

The most revealing day was the Monday, when one player after the next sat down in a room full of reporters and answered a broad range of questions with startling self-assuredness. From Michael Voss to Simon Black to Mal Michael and Martin Pike; they all understood why Saturday's game would be won rather than lost.

The following year at Alberton, the experience was much the same. Senior coach Mark Williams, for all his reputation as a bit of a grouch, showed himself to be a warm, engaging personality. Uncelebrated players such as Josh Mahoney and Brett Montgomery enjoyed the chance to tell their stories.

Port Adelaide had never been that deep in a finals series. But like the Lions, the Power players handled themselves as if they had seen it all before.

Which brings us to Geelong this week. Like Brisbane in 2003, Geelong is the best team. Like Port Adelaide in 2004, the Cats have a perfect opportunity to amend the history of finals failures that hangs like an albatross around the club's neck. Yet Geelong, despite bold intentions and careful planning, appears lost in the September haze.

Reminiscent of federal Labor's spats for spoils, are reports club legend Bobby Davis has cracked the shits the Geelong players will stay in Melbourne instead of heading straight back to Geelong for the post-match celebrations. You think he'd know better.

Now, not one Geelong fan I've talked to has said Geelong are home; they aren't that stupid and they've probably worn out their fingers touching any and every bit of wood in Geelong. Nor are the even slightly smug. It's just that they seem serenely confident tomorrow will be The Great Day when the Catters finally get that premiership monkey off their back. They are asking for trouble.

"We'll never stop, stop, stop..."

Last word to Cameron Noakes in The Age, who seems to have picked up the same vibe. You've just got to wade through his issues to find it:

Hoops are high, but bandwagon doesn't bowl me over

WARNING: the following material contains content that may offend (especially if you're a Geelong fan).

I HAVE thoughts inside my head. Horrible, filthy, ineffable thoughts and I want them to stop, but they just won't stop.

People think I'm twisted. My wife thinks I'm despicable. She says if our relationship is to improve, I need to grow a beard and find my soul and write about beautiful things, truth and spirit, the grace of indigenous footballers and bucolic wonderlands.

My wife is secretly in love with Martin Flanagan.

One day, when I woke from a dream about '80s Caro, I caught her dreaming about Martin.

In the morning, she had a glow in her cheeks and she said "Let's go to Tasmania", and, "Why do indigenous footballers often win the Norm Smith Medal?"

I was furious. I said: "No" and "I don't know" and stormed out, thinking about Maurice Rioli, Peter Matera, Michael Long, Andy McLeod and Byron Pickett.

And I started thinking about Port Adelaide.

You see, I'm just a dirty Melbourne boy and I know I should be swept away by the music of Geelong, but I can't get Port out of my mind.

It sounds like treason, but I'm attracted to sporting superpowers and I like the fact that Port is in the business of putting cups in the cabinet.

Everything suggests that Geelong will smash the Power (take the brackets 43-60 points and 61-plus at FootyTAB) but I am worried.

I'm worried that we are all under the spell of the blue-and-white hoops.

FOOTSTRAVAGANZA

tONY asks the question "So, now the lineup's settled, TT, who're you backing in?"

Fair enough, I said I'd reply today, so I will. But if Aussie Rules is not your cup of tea you might want to stop reading now because I have a feeling this one is likely to go on and on and on and on. And if you do like Aussie Rules, you still better grab a cup of tea because I have a feeling this one is likely to go on and on and ... yeah, righto.

First, to Friday night. There's been a lot said and written about the Collingwood/Geelong game. As you'd expect most of it has centered on the "Pies honourable/Cats rusty" thrust. Less expected was the idea this was a surprise. It shouldn't have been. Last week I tipped the Collingwoods and outlined what I thought were the reasons. The Pies, coached by Malthouse to play tight finals footy*, would clamp down on the Cats, deny them space, then hit them on the break. Conversely, the Cats, with the weight of expectation building during a stellar season, would choke and the Pie would get over the line. That's pretty much what happened, except for the not insignificant detail that Collingwood didn't, in fact, get over the line. But they nearly did. Nevertheless, if I thought that, at least the occasional media footyhead should have thought it too.

* Malthouse did the same at West Coast, but obviously had better players. Still, I'm not alone among my WA mates in thinking WC might have snagged an extra flag or two in the late 90s had they got rid of Malthouse sooner than 1999 and freed up the Eagles' game plan. I concede it would have been hard to dump him, but if they had they would have been spared Ken Judge.

Next, Saturday afternoon night evening. Let's be frank, the Kangas are not a top four side. Yes, yes, don't get all literally literal on me. When I say top four side, I mean Top Four Side, not a side in the top four. Sure, they finished in the top four, but their list was never going to compete when it mattered. Dean Laidley's done a bang up job getting the Roos near the top, but he just didn't have the cattle. Prior to the match I thought there might be a scenario similar to Friday night. Laidley, after all, is a Malthouse protege and coaches the Roos to block up space, etc, but he lacks the players to carry it out as well as Collingwood. Port are significantly better than North, so were always going to win, especially on their own paddock.

Another thing raised was the notion that Geelong were significantly advantaged by the week's break. I don't buy that. Several sides have won recent Preliminary Finals without a break: in 2006 the Eagles beat Adelaide; in 2005 Sydney beat St Kilda; and in 2003 Brisbane beat Sydney. Yes, if you go back through the years the sides that have had the week's break are more often than not the sides that made it through to the Grand Final, but historically the top one or two sides were clearly the best one or two sides; that's not the case now, what with a remarkably even competition. So if anyone said to you "Geelong should win because they have a break", I trust you told them to get stuffed. Geelong won because they were better.

(Fat Vautin made a good point in yesterday's Storm/Parramatta PF when he said the team with the break usually takes a while to get going. This looked very much the case on Friday, but Collingwood couldn't capitalise on Geelong's early lack of rhythm.)

So, how does all that lead into the Grand Final. Well, for a start both sides have had a break. Or more correctly, both sides have had a chance to get over their break and get rid of any rust. Geelong looked the sloppier on the weekend, but they had the harder game, and anyway, the Collingwoods made them look sloppy with their pressure game. Maybe you can draw historical precedents. In 2001, Essendon wobbled past Hawthorn while Brisbane pantsed Richmond. This allegedly took it out of Essendon, enabling Brisbane to overrun the Bombers in the GF. But in 2004, both Port and Brisbane had tough PFs. The common denominator, then, is not tough PFs it's injuries. In 2001, Essendon took injured players into the GF; the same for Brisbane in 2004. So are there any injuries? Well, Egan is a long term loss and Cam Mooney might have a dodgy back, but there's not much else apparent from either side.

Tip-wise, most important is how the sides match up. Collingwood match up well with Geelong so that was always going to be close. And if you look at the numbers, Geelong and Port are 8/1/8, so you can't split them on head-to-head. Mind you, it would have been tempting to go for North against Port on the back of their 13/5 record. On top of that, every pundit and their pet chucks in the game five weeks ago when Port pipped Geelong in Geelong, but the Cats were missing Bartel and Ling; they were "due a loss" too, as they say, for whatever that's worth, and I think it is worth something, although I'm not sure what.

Before the 2004 GF I first tipped Port, but my core footy philosophy, that the tougher teams win the games that matter, swayed me into changing my tip to Brisbane. But! The Brizroys took injured players (especially Lynch) into the GF and the fitter Port rolled them. It's not so cut-and-dried this week. Both sides will have appreciated getting their acts together last weekend, both sides seem to be OK injury-wise, both sides have plenty of skill. But while Port beat you on transition, Geelong have the physical game. Significantly, too, while Port and Geelong are No.1 and No.2 for scoring this season, Geelong is No.1 for defense, but Port are No.10.

So, what does that all add up to? Well, if Geelong's key defenders can hold Port's forwards then Geelong should win. But you never know, Matthew Egan's loss might be significant. Port might play around Scarlett and Harley and try to suck sweeper Milburn out of the play; this would nullify Geelong's rebound. Nor were Geelong's attack overly convincing on Friday night. Can Port exploit Mooney/Nablett and cane Geelong going back down the other way? Can the Burgoynes and Cornes brothers cut up the Geelong on-ballers? Will Ottens and Blake/King, who flogged the Pie ruck duds, be able to handle Lade/Brogan? Will Hawkins come in for Nablett, who looked toothless on Friday? Will Choco Williams pull a rabbit out of a hat? Will I change my "tip" before Saturday? Can I be any more inconclusive than that?

Elsewhere; how's this for chokeworthy in Melbourne's Eastern Football League.

Miss after siren hands Vermont its threepeat

VERMONT miraculously escaped defeat to win its third consecutive premiership, surviving a late charge from Noble Park to claim a thrilling four-point victory in the Eastern Football League grand final yesterday.

With six minutes to go, the game looked over when Noble Park's Kris Barlow (a former Hawthorn player who was recruited from Vermont) failed to capitalise on a 25-metre penalty, missing from 10 metres out which allowed Vermont to keep a two-goal lead.

But the Bulls were not finished. They slashed the margin to five points and, after a quick clearance, again sent the ball forward to Daniel Kennedy, who marked just outside the goal square as the siren sounded.

As the crowd ran on to the ground, Kennedy blew his chance and handed Vermont its 18th flag since the league began in 1962.

Or what about the Upper Great Southern Football League in Western Australia? Wickepin won the Grand Final after finishing the home-and-aways third. Not so strange, you might think. But in a final four system, Wicky won the First Semi Final by five points, the Preliminary Final by five points and beat Yobbo's Axis of Evil, Kukerin/Dumbleyung, by five points in the Grand Final.

And here's an odd one from Victoria's Kyabram District Football League: Stanhope thrashed Ardmona by 87 points, but the best-on-ground medal was awarded to an Ardmona player.

Back in Melbourne, Adam lays into the MCC members, but the lock out was a fuck-up waiting to happen. There are 100,000 members, of which I'm one, yet only 20,000 seats. Do the mathematics. Then, with the majority of fans barracking for Melbourne, Collingwood, Geelong and Essendon and with members still being allowed guest passes for Preliminary Finals it was a stone certainty members were going to be locked out at any match involving two of those teams. It serves the MCC right; they've been made to look stupid because they tried to milk a few extra dollars out of the members guests.

Good article by Richard Hinds on the TV footy coverage. For what it's worth, I reckon Seven have gotten better across the year and have finished pretty strongly; whereas Ten need to concentrate on the footy and ditch the bells, the whistles, the kitchen sink and the stunningly unfunny Strauchanie.

Too many commentators spoil the booth

HOW many football commentators does it take to change a light bulb?

Not sure. But, safe to say, had there been a blown bulb during Ten's telecast of the Kangaroos-Hawthorn semi-final, a team of callers and experts could have climbed up the tower to screw in the replacement without disrupting the flow of conversation in the commentary box.

The AFL's finals format is designed to test teams under extreme pressure and identify a worthy premier.

This year, with Channel Seven having joined Channel Ten in producing a share of the finals - after Nine, to its lasting regret, handed Ten the entire finals series under the previous deal - they have also become something of a showdown between the two commercial broadcasters.

Another good article, this one by Debi Enker about Footy Classified. Personally, I reckon FC is a bit too tricked up, and I can't cop Hutchy and his intentionally provocative persona that makes him sound like a smartarse school kid, but FC has the makings of a good show if only they can find the right balance between insult and insight.

Classified: blood-sport lovers only

ONE of the most arresting sights on television this year has been Caroline Wilson and Wayne Carey glaring at each other across the desk in Footy Classified. While it's not spectacular in the traditional TV sense of the word - no breathtaking action, dazzling camera moves or epic crowd scenes - this clash of footy titans has been compelling.

The Age's chief football writer and a 3AW commentator, Wilson is not a journalist inclined to shrink from confrontation, nor is she easily intimidated. Women who have spent years groaning at the antics of the fellas in the blokey bastion of footy shows feel some pride in the fact that there's now a woman on the scene tough enough to stand her ground in the defence of her opinions.

CAKEWALKERS

FLAGPIES?

Conventional wisdom has Geelong a certainty for this year's premiership. While Collingwood, after struggling to beat West Coast in a sapping thriller at Subiaco, will be cannon fodder for the all-conquering Catters in this Friday's Preliminary Final.

Not so.

Here's something I wrote at Demonland back in July:

What hurts me, more than anything, is not that we've missed our window of opportunity, it's WHO we've lost it to.

Sure, we haven't been quite good enough to consider ourselves a solid chance, but for several years now we've been told all we need to do to win a flag is keep presenting as a top four prospect. The more often we were up with the top teams, the more likelihood there was we'd be a chance to snag a flag. Just as long as we continued to make the finals.

Now, this year. First we tinker with our style. Instead of fine-tuning last year's style, we tried the run-and-carry. Sure, it was supposed to augment our original game plan, not supersede it, but either way it's been a flop. It was apparent from the first quarter of Round 1 when St Kilda had nine scoring shots to our seven (and numerous OOFs) that we were in deep doo-doo for 2007. We just weren't tough enough to carry the ball into crowded areas and keep hold of it. That was followed by a shed load of injuries, starting with Brocky, our most important mid-fielder, in the second quarter of Round 1.

So, just as we think we might be well placed to challenge for the top four, just as we think this could be our year, just as we get out hopes up, we're out of the running in a finals that are the most open they've been for years.

Out of the current eight, we are better than Hawthorn, Norf, Port and Footscray at our best. (We should have beaten three of them, anyway.) We'd need to be at our best to challenge the present Geelong, who are burning, but IT IS Geelong, the one team more painful to barrack for than Melbourne; surely, something will go wrong for the Catters. West Coast are struggling and despite their pantsing us in Perth, are vulnerable here. The Sydney Pinks are looming large again, but they are coming from a long way back. Adelaide seem to be timing their run better than last year, but they aren't as imposing as they were at times last year. That leaves Collingwood. Malthouse coaches his teams to win finals. Should the Poys get a break in the finals they will be a major threat. Tony Shaw was right to say they could pinch it.

But are we at our best? Are we F**K! And where are we? Virtually stone motherless last and out of the bloody race.

You know what I won't be doing this September? Watching football. To have any of those sides scum a flag in the year we decide to go backwards will be too painful for words. Collingwood for obvious reasons. Sydney because the AFL granted them a flag in 2005 with the Hall decision (just compare that joke with Davey's last night). Hawthorn, North and Port because they aren't good enough to deserve one. Geelong and Footscray because that will mean we are one team closer to the team with the longest premiership drought. Adelaide because in their 16 year history luck has already granted them TWO flags.

The only less-painful-than-the-rest option is the side that will never stop, stop, stop til they're top, top, top, because I don't know even one Port fan.

Well, OK I lied. I watched last night and I'm glad I did, it was a thriller. But Collingwood's win in Perth also had me thinking ominous thoughts about the Poys winning this year's flag.

Historians may cite the 1980 Preliminary Final when Collingwood, who finished the home-and-away season fifth, beat Geelong by 4 points. They may recall the 1981 Preliminary Final when Garry Sidebottom missed the bus to Waverley and Collingwood beat Geelong by 7 points. They might even go so far back as 1953 when Collingwood were able to stop Geelong's record run of 23 wins. They also beat Geelong in that year's Grand Final to stop the Catters going back-to-back. Although "back-to-back" wasn't around in the days before Australian sports commentators discovered America.

There's also 1990. That year the Collingwoods, as we sadly remember, went on to win the flag after they drew with West Coast in the Qualifying Final. Suma Magic pressure-bunnied an easy shot to cause a replay. Last night Andrew Embley missed an, admittedly harder, shot to "draw" the game and force the extra time that's been in the rule book since that 1990 QF. We'll let Glass off the hook; he's a backman, after all.

(We won't let David Wirrpanda off the hook. He dropped a sitter chest mark to allow Collingwood back into the game. Then later fluffed a one-handed pick-up on the half-forward flank that would have enabled him a clear charge into the forward line. It was reminiscent of the 2005 Grand Final when he squibbed the contest that allowed Amon Buchanan to kick the winner.)

There is a school of thought that blue collar, hard nosed Collingwood will always beat countrified, flash Geelong when it matters. There's something in that. Tough sides are always the ones I'll have my money on in the finals. You've only got to look at most of the last, say, 25 years, when the physically imposing side is the one that's won the flag nearly every year.

Look at the 2002 and 2003 final series. On both occasions Malthouse had the Pies smothering, space-clogging game at its peak. It was a pity for them - but not for the rest of us - that they met powerhouse Brisbane in each Grand Final. That game plan is working again this year. They've suffocated both Sydney and West Coast and then stung both on the break. And neither Port nor Geelong are as good a bet as Brisbane 2002/2003.

Look, too, to when the Poys played Geelong at the MCG this year. They were probably outplayed, but still had their chances to win as they hung on for an ... ahem ... honourable loss.

They can reverse that result next Friday night. Had Geelong played West Coast, they would have smashed them. Collingwood is different. It won't be the Geelong cakewalk many people think, it will be a tightly fought, in-close, pressure game where Collingwood will do everything they can to choke up Geelong's run through the middle.

Sure, the Cats have been magnificent most of the year, and most every unaligned punter has them as favourite. Sportingbet has Geelong $1.60 for the flag and Collingwood at $6.00. But, like I wrote above, Geelong, more than any other team, is likely to give its fans grief. Get your hard earned magic beans on Collingwood. And don't forget to enjoy the traditional AFL fantasy game: 100 Gorillas. You know, counting the number of times the media say the crowd will be 100,000. I say 57.

Then, if the Pies beat Geelong, they are for me, a monty to beat Port, who I think will beat whoever they play in the other Preliminary Final in Addle-aide.

PS: In the pursuit of full disclosure, I also post this comment that I made this morning at Demonland:

Well done Collingwood! You knocked those cocky eagles off their perch. Living in Perth as a loyal Victorian, I love to hear those one-eyed Eagles fans moaning about their loss or suddenly losing all interest in footy. You have got to live over here to experience it.

~~ Bobby Mckenzie

I second, third AND fourth Bobby Mac.

Having lived in Western Australia for 15 years, there is no doubt WC fans are the most cocky and obnoxious fans in the league. Why do you think Dockers tragic, Matt Price, spends countless column inches caning the Eagles? He knows how nauseating WC fans are. Think smug Carlton fans at their worst and triple it.

For a Melbourne fan living in isolated Perth - who, by the way, was introduced everywhere as "Meet, Tony, he's a Victorian" like I'd killed their dog - it was dead set unbearable.

Chuck in the fact that, with only only two teams in Perth, there is saturation coverage in the papers, on the telly and on the radio. You just can't escape it. What's more, I was there when there was only the Eagles, no Dockers. West Coast dominated the news bulletins (not just the sports sections, either) and West Coast players read the weather, hosted sports reports, had jobs as sports reporters, wrote newspaper columns, did the Lotto numbers and were in too many ads to remember. It was just a nightmare.

Worst of all, though, is the hard-done-by attitude of the West Coast fans. They will not concede they enjoy even the slightest advantages. It's "we get nothing!" everywhere you go.

Bobby Mac, you want to know the best way to get a rise out of the Eagles fans? First remind them that the AFL (VFL as it was then) virtually gave them two premierships with early draft concessions. Rub it in that Victorian clubs were prohibited from drafting in WA. Razz them about their home ground advantage while casually shrugging off their pathetic travel excuse. Tell them they've ONLY won three flags when they should have won at least six.

In short, tell them they are under-achievers.

That said, I still have many West Aussie friends (maybe not so many if they read this) and now I'm back in Melbourne, away from the WA nightmare, and surrounded instead by cretinous, band-wagoning Collingwood fans. Despite having a long held animosity to West Coast, I don't subscribe to the Victorian media-driven idea that the interstate clubs are evil interlopers. I would rather Port win the flag than Richmond; I would rather Sydney win than Essendon; and yes, I would rather West Coast win than Collingwood. What's more, I think the Poys will beat Geelong. It is Geelong after all; heartbreak awaits. That means Collingwood will play in the Grand Final and because they will probably play Port, they will win. Repeat that: Collingwood will win the Grand Final. Sounds hideous, doesn't it?

As that noted football expert, Dr Zachary Smith, was wont to exclaim "Ohhh, the pain."

MILD MONDAY

Sigh. There goes yet another football tradition:

Police keep watch on mad Monday

MAD Monday, football's annual day of infamy, may be going the way of the drop-kick and the shirt-front . . . and the footy trip, as Mike Sheahan writes.

Reports from the six Victorian AFL clubs that finished their season last weekend indicate a new level of player responsibility at the traditional post-season wake.

"I just think everybody is more aware of their responsibilities," Carlton chief executive Greg Swann said last night.

NEWTON