BETTER LATE THAN CLEVER

Aussie Rules is a contact sport, and in contact sports strength and collision are everything. So although a slightly harder, but still free-running, loose-man Port Adelaide won the 2004 premiership, in 2005, the side that best employs collision football will again come out on top. Just like sides have done in nearly every season since I remember; let's say 1970.

Couple this with the fact that Geelong and the non-Victorian sides, Adelaide excepted, will win enough games at home to set up their seasons and make the finals.

Bearing those two things in mind, and that no predictions can be made concerning injuries, here is my 2005 ladder.

1. Brisbane
   Smarting from the 2004 Grand Final when everything went Port's way (including the TV instigated Preliminary Final scheduling), expect Brisbane to again be hard to beat at the Gabba. The Lions are the kings of collision and should go very close to the premiership. What we saw on Thursday night means Brizroy again mean business.
   
2. St Kilda
   The Saints at their best play the best football in the competition. Grant Thomas also understands the importance of collisions at the contest. However a suspect lower end of their best twenty and a dubious backline means they will only be good enough in 2005 to better 2004’s gains by one position.
3. Port Adelaide
   The Power will again easily make the top four, but just like each year before 2004, their loose-man style of play will again prove their Achilles heel when the heat is on.
4. West Coast
   The Toaster’s great on-ballers and their home-ground advantage will again see them up in the top eight. But they don’t have enough in the way of forward power and would need stellar years from the likes of McDougall, Lynch and again from Matera to regularly kick enough goals in the big games away from home; read Grand Final.
5. Sydney
   A well coached, tight unit will win more than they lose, but they lack enough star-power to win the big games that deliver a premiership.
6. Geelong
   Play a terrific style of close checking footy, I'm a big wrap for the Catters. But despite recruiting Brad Ottens, they also lot Ben Graham and so are only  slightly better than break-even. Expect them also to lose a few more of those close games they won last year.
7. Fremantle
   They have a dubious style of play, what with their Port-like reliance on setting up the loose-man. But twelve games in Perth added to the inclusion of Josh Carr's toughness at the drop of the ball mean they will win enough to get into the finals. Must find a marking target up front. If anyone is to drop out of my eight, though, it wouldn’t surprise me if it was Freo.
8. Carlton
   In short; Dennis Pagan. The master of collision footy will help them sneak into the eight. They have an ordinary group of players, though, so while having Pagan at the helm is an enormous boost, they have too many hacks to take them up into the top four. Personally it was shattered when it was apparent Pagan would go to Carlton, because he, more than any other coach, has the ability to quickly take them up the ladder. Carlton on the bottom is good for (my) football.
9. Richmond
   A smokey. Terry Wallace is the key inclusion. He plays a cunning style of footy which will have the Tiges winning regularly, but a lack of very good players will mean they will lose too often to sustain a big year. Wallace, also, is far too keen on setting up the loose-man and doesn’t concentrate enough on winning the tough balls. Like Sydney and the Bulldogs, to name a couple, expect plenty of flooding. I wonder who is going to be Wallace's Libber-like attack-dog.
   
10. Essendon
    No Sheedy side whether it be as a player or as a coach, ever has a shocking year unless ravaged by injuries. Despite the light talent of their recent inclusions, expect them to win a fair share of games.
11. Collingwood
    Had a poor year last year when injuries played a big role and they couldn’t get their season going. But Mick Malthouse will have The Pies playing his accountable, smothering style and will get the best out of the list. Needs Rocca and Tarrant to have big years to capitalise on any good work up the ground.
12. Adelaide
    Who knows where Adelaide are going to finish. Can Neil Craig coach? Can the likes of Schuback, Jericho and Hentchel develop? I've only got them here because I can't figure out where in the bottom eight they are going to finish. But twelve games in Adelaide is always a bonus. They might even win the odd one against the top sides.
13. Melbourne
    Melbourne won five games last year courtesy of Richmond, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs retaining their coaches for one year too long. All three sides were rubbish which enabled Melbourne to get their season going. Couple that with wins against injury-hit Collingwood, Sydney, St Kilda and Port and a generally favourable draw and Melbourne were able to win enough games to make the eight. However, Neil Daniher is not the greatest devotee of collision football. So this year expect the other sides to crowd Melbourne's forward line and deprive the Dees of scoring opportunities. For Melbourne to defy my gloomy prediction, they need to get much better when the heat is on. And if they are as soft as they were at times last year, they are gone because most of the sides they beat last year will be better this year. Certainly if they lose tonight against Essendon their season will end up in the toilet. Naturally I hope I'm completely and utterly wrong.
    
14. Kangaroos
    Not too sureabout the Kangas. I'm not convinced Laidley has what it takes and I just don't think they have enough good players to make an impact on the season. Daniel Welles is a star, though, and an awesome player to watch.
    
15. Western Bulldogs
    With Rodney Eade coaching they will enjoy some good wins, but like the Kangas, they just don't seem to have enough good players. There's a good chance they'll finish higher, but in an amazingly even competition, I can't think who they'll displace to move up the ladder.
    
16. Hawthorn
    If you've had a good look at their list, you'll know why they are going to finish on the bottom.