See. See what I mean. This (abridged) exchange, between Brian Taylor and Liam Pickering on Fox AFL Teams, is what I'm talking about:
BT: "Zip and three at Richmond. Only three sides before have made it to the finals from that position."
LP: "Even those three you mentioned: Geelong in 2004; Adelaide in 2001 finished 8th; Sydney in 1999 finished 8th. So, even if they make it they are going to be at the bottom end."
Were I at work today, and not on a well-earned holiday, you could put all your magic beans on a co-league saying something like "Did you see the stats on AFL Teams last night? The Tigers are gone."
Not so fast.
First: selective omission. Pickers conveniently left out that Geelong just missed the grand final when they lost a preliminary final squeaker to Brisbane in 2004 and therefore, by finishing fourth, did not finish in the bottom end of the eight.
Second: missing a year. Melbourne lost the first three games of 2006 and finished sixth.
Third: only? Rather than "Only" three sides making it to the eight after losing the first three games of a season, four sides have made it to the eight... since 1999. There's no "only" to it. In ten seasons a side who lost the first three has made it to the finals 40% of the time. Near on once every two years. If the Tigers make the eight this year it will be five from out of eleven and 45%. It's almost, not quite, bordering on the edge of a necessity to lose the first three games. Fremantle and Melbourne are certain to make this year's eight.
Thank god we won that farce of a game at the SCG where Rivers got jibbed and that guy did a speech about how there was too much "legging" going in the game.
Posted by: Adam 1.0 | 19 April 2009 at 08:49
That would have completely be-flumoxed BT and Pickers. In looking for sides who had lost the first three and then made the finals, they would probably have missed a side that had lost four.
Posted by: Tony T | 19 April 2009 at 13:27
Well, you can count Fremantle out of the finals. But Melbourne are still on target.
Posted by: Tony T | 19 April 2009 at 23:19
But Tony, Melbourne didn't lose the first four. They first won in Round 4 and went on to finish 7th and then onto be the Dockers first finals victim...
Posted by: Soups | 21 April 2009 at 13:01
Don't remind me about the Freo Final. Especially don't remind me about how David Klutz... sorry, Neitz kept the ball in play late in the second quarter to allow Freo a run-starting goal in the second quarter.
They lost the first three in 2006 then beat the Sydney Pinks in round 4.
Posted by: Tony | 21 April 2009 at 13:05