FOOTSTRAVAGANZA

tONY asks the question "So, now the lineup's settled, TT, who're you backing in?"

Fair enough, I said I'd reply today, so I will. But if Aussie Rules is not your cup of tea you might want to stop reading now because I have a feeling this one is likely to go on and on and on and on. And if you do like Aussie Rules, you still better grab a cup of tea because I have a feeling this one is likely to go on and on and ... yeah, righto.

First, to Friday night. There's been a lot said and written about the Collingwood/Geelong game. As you'd expect most of it has centered on the "Pies honourable/Cats rusty" thrust. Less expected was the idea this was a surprise. It shouldn't have been. Last week I tipped the Collingwoods and outlined what I thought were the reasons. The Pies, coached by Malthouse to play tight finals footy*, would clamp down on the Cats, deny them space, then hit them on the break. Conversely, the Cats, with the weight of expectation building during a stellar season, would choke and the Pie would get over the line. That's pretty much what happened, except for the not insignificant detail that Collingwood didn't, in fact, get over the line. But they nearly did. Nevertheless, if I thought that, at least the occasional media footyhead should have thought it too.

* Malthouse did the same at West Coast, but obviously had better players. Still, I'm not alone among my WA mates in thinking WC might have snagged an extra flag or two in the late 90s had they got rid of Malthouse sooner than 1999 and freed up the Eagles' game plan. I concede it would have been hard to dump him, but if they had they would have been spared Ken Judge.

Next, Saturday afternoon night evening. Let's be frank, the Kangas are not a top four side. Yes, yes, don't get all literally literal on me. When I say top four side, I mean Top Four Side, not a side in the top four. Sure, they finished in the top four, but their list was never going to compete when it mattered. Dean Laidley's done a bang up job getting the Roos near the top, but he just didn't have the cattle. Prior to the match I thought there might be a scenario similar to Friday night. Laidley, after all, is a Malthouse protege and coaches the Roos to block up space, etc, but he lacks the players to carry it out as well as Collingwood. Port are significantly better than North, so were always going to win, especially on their own paddock.

Another thing raised was the notion that Geelong were significantly advantaged by the week's break. I don't buy that. Several sides have won recent Preliminary Finals without a break: in 2006 the Eagles beat Adelaide; in 2005 Sydney beat St Kilda; and in 2003 Brisbane beat Sydney. Yes, if you go back through the years the sides that have had the week's break are more often than not the sides that made it through to the Grand Final, but historically the top one or two sides were clearly the best one or two sides; that's not the case now, what with a remarkably even competition. So if anyone said to you "Geelong should win because they have a break", I trust you told them to get stuffed. Geelong won because they were better.

(Fat Vautin made a good point in yesterday's Storm/Parramatta PF when he said the team with the break usually takes a while to get going. This looked very much the case on Friday, but Collingwood couldn't capitalise on Geelong's early lack of rhythm.)

So, how does all that lead into the Grand Final. Well, for a start both sides have had a break. Or more correctly, both sides have had a chance to get over their break and get rid of any rust. Geelong looked the sloppier on the weekend, but they had the harder game, and anyway, the Collingwoods made them look sloppy with their pressure game. Maybe you can draw historical precedents. In 2001, Essendon wobbled past Hawthorn while Brisbane pantsed Richmond. This allegedly took it out of Essendon, enabling Brisbane to overrun the Bombers in the GF. But in 2004, both Port and Brisbane had tough PFs. The common denominator, then, is not tough PFs it's injuries. In 2001, Essendon took injured players into the GF; the same for Brisbane in 2004. So are there any injuries? Well, Egan is a long term loss and Cam Mooney might have a dodgy back, but there's not much else apparent from either side.

Tip-wise, most important is how the sides match up. Collingwood match up well with Geelong so that was always going to be close. And if you look at the numbers, Geelong and Port are 8/1/8, so you can't split them on head-to-head. Mind you, it would have been tempting to go for North against Port on the back of their 13/5 record. On top of that, every pundit and their pet chucks in the game five weeks ago when Port pipped Geelong in Geelong, but the Cats were missing Bartel and Ling; they were "due a loss" too, as they say, for whatever that's worth, and I think it is worth something, although I'm not sure what.

Before the 2004 GF I first tipped Port, but my core footy philosophy, that the tougher teams win the games that matter, swayed me into changing my tip to Brisbane. But! The Brizroys took injured players (especially Lynch) into the GF and the fitter Port rolled them. It's not so cut-and-dried this week. Both sides will have appreciated getting their acts together last weekend, both sides seem to be OK injury-wise, both sides have plenty of skill. But while Port beat you on transition, Geelong have the physical game. Significantly, too, while Port and Geelong are No.1 and No.2 for scoring this season, Geelong is No.1 for defense, but Port are No.10.

So, what does that all add up to? Well, if Geelong's key defenders can hold Port's forwards then Geelong should win. But you never know, Matthew Egan's loss might be significant. Port might play around Scarlett and Harley and try to suck sweeper Milburn out of the play; this would nullify Geelong's rebound. Nor were Geelong's attack overly convincing on Friday night. Can Port exploit Mooney/Nablett and cane Geelong going back down the other way? Can the Burgoynes and Cornes brothers cut up the Geelong on-ballers? Will Ottens and Blake/King, who flogged the Pie ruck duds, be able to handle Lade/Brogan? Will Hawkins come in for Nablett, who looked toothless on Friday? Will Choco Williams pull a rabbit out of a hat? Will I change my "tip" before Saturday? Can I be any more inconclusive than that?

Elsewhere; how's this for chokeworthy in Melbourne's Eastern Football League.

Miss after siren hands Vermont its threepeat

VERMONT miraculously escaped defeat to win its third consecutive premiership, surviving a late charge from Noble Park to claim a thrilling four-point victory in the Eastern Football League grand final yesterday.

With six minutes to go, the game looked over when Noble Park's Kris Barlow (a former Hawthorn player who was recruited from Vermont) failed to capitalise on a 25-metre penalty, missing from 10 metres out which allowed Vermont to keep a two-goal lead.

But the Bulls were not finished. They slashed the margin to five points and, after a quick clearance, again sent the ball forward to Daniel Kennedy, who marked just outside the goal square as the siren sounded.

As the crowd ran on to the ground, Kennedy blew his chance and handed Vermont its 18th flag since the league began in 1962.

Or what about the Upper Great Southern Football League in Western Australia? Wickepin won the Grand Final after finishing the home-and-aways third. Not so strange, you might think. But in a final four system, Wicky won the First Semi Final by five points, the Preliminary Final by five points and beat Yobbo's Axis of Evil, Kukerin/Dumbleyung, by five points in the Grand Final.

And here's an odd one from Victoria's Kyabram District Football League: Stanhope thrashed Ardmona by 87 points, but the best-on-ground medal was awarded to an Ardmona player.

Back in Melbourne, Adam lays into the MCC members, but the lock out was a fuck-up waiting to happen. There are 100,000 members, of which I'm one, yet only 20,000 seats. Do the mathematics. Then, with the majority of fans barracking for Melbourne, Collingwood, Geelong and Essendon and with members still being allowed guest passes for Preliminary Finals it was a stone certainty members were going to be locked out at any match involving two of those teams. It serves the MCC right; they've been made to look stupid because they tried to milk a few extra dollars out of the members guests.

Good article by Richard Hinds on the TV footy coverage. For what it's worth, I reckon Seven have gotten better across the year and have finished pretty strongly; whereas Ten need to concentrate on the footy and ditch the bells, the whistles, the kitchen sink and the stunningly unfunny Strauchanie.

Too many commentators spoil the booth

HOW many football commentators does it take to change a light bulb?

Not sure. But, safe to say, had there been a blown bulb during Ten's telecast of the Kangaroos-Hawthorn semi-final, a team of callers and experts could have climbed up the tower to screw in the replacement without disrupting the flow of conversation in the commentary box.

The AFL's finals format is designed to test teams under extreme pressure and identify a worthy premier.

This year, with Channel Seven having joined Channel Ten in producing a share of the finals - after Nine, to its lasting regret, handed Ten the entire finals series under the previous deal - they have also become something of a showdown between the two commercial broadcasters.

Another good article, this one by Debi Enker about Footy Classified. Personally, I reckon FC is a bit too tricked up, and I can't cop Hutchy and his intentionally provocative persona that makes him sound like a smartarse school kid, but FC has the makings of a good show if only they can find the right balance between insult and insight.

Classified: blood-sport lovers only

ONE of the most arresting sights on television this year has been Caroline Wilson and Wayne Carey glaring at each other across the desk in Footy Classified. While it's not spectacular in the traditional TV sense of the word - no breathtaking action, dazzling camera moves or epic crowd scenes - this clash of footy titans has been compelling.

The Age's chief football writer and a 3AW commentator, Wilson is not a journalist inclined to shrink from confrontation, nor is she easily intimidated. Women who have spent years groaning at the antics of the fellas in the blokey bastion of footy shows feel some pride in the fact that there's now a woman on the scene tough enough to stand her ground in the defence of her opinions.

Comments

[tONY]

One can't "centre around" something, Tone. One "circulates around" or "centres on".

[tONY]

But excellent, nonetheless. I still think Geelong will burst out and nail it in the first quarter - like Hawthorn did to them in 89, but Port haven't got the toughness to claw back, or G Ablett up front.

Always happy to see Dumbleyung get done - I got my car tyres let down outside the Dumbleyung pub once. Never been sure why (although I was with my brother, who doubtless pissed someone off), but it certainly queered me on the worthless shithole.

[Tony T.]

Right. Consider it corrected.

I was lucky to play in the Upper Great Southern before K/D joined, otherwise I might have tried to let some tyres down, too, to stop them getting to games.

[ThirdCat]

Oh, go on, Tony T, back Port. You know you want to. Don't you?

[Tony T.]

Well, TC, I don't know about that. Port had a nice time of it in 2004, now it's Geelong's turn.

[Scott Wickstein]

Nice bit of fence-sitting, Tony.

[13th Man]

I'd consider Wilbur Wilson a significant injury for us - particularly with our back half weakness. Wakey wakey Tone.
Port can win, but probably won't - stars having to be perfectly aligned and all that. If the Cats do win, it will be less painful than losing to anyone else purely because they have been so bloody good this year. If anyone has 'earned' it, they have.
Regarding the commentary, does anyone find that total fuckwit M. Christian as irritating as I do - I think I'd punch that prick on principal. Good to see Bruce still being hopelessly outclassed by Dennis - last night's snorefest being the latest example. And how bad was ther camera-work during Ten's telecast of the Power-Roos match? I'm going with fucking abysmal.
Transitioning neatly to cricket (well, sort of cricket): this may well be the first time I've ever concurred with Gideon 'Smarmy' Haigh: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22473696-7583,00.html

[carneagles]

My only experience of Kukerin, I'm pleased to say, was watching that SBS car crash where they paired off all those British chicks with single farmers. It basically looked like a Wheatbelt dot full of God botherers, which may or may not be accurate.

And it's worth remembering that WCE was a game clear in first place in 1999 when the Malthouse-to-Pies bomb dropped. 1996 (first MCG rule shafting) and that year were the years we should have won another.

Oh yeah, the topic. Geelong for mine. Which upsets me, because that old arsehole Bob Davis is still alive to see it.

[Ann O'Dyne]

Caroline Wilson has been working 30 years for the position she is in now.

and I would "glare across the desk" at Carey,w too.

[Ann O'Dyne]

the seat-shortage fracas occurred because
of the 70,000 new members admitted when
the MCC was needing funds for renovating the ground.
I followed your link to supermercado who says he hates them for being elitist.

I blasted him out of the water with this vicious diatribe:
"A club by definition, excludes, so ALL clubs are elitist".
god, I'm scary.

[Adsy]

Went to a GF on the weekend, the side I was following had a seconds and firsts playing. Seconds came from 5th in a final five and managed to find themselves 43 points up with 5 mins to go in the 3rd quarter. I called it all over only to see the other side slam on 11 to 1 from that time on to win by 3 goals.

I had more confidence in the seniors who only lost one game all year (to the mob they played here) and thrashed them in the qualifying final. But the old chestnut of having the week off and starting slow came back to hurt them as they didn't kick enough with the wind at the start and played catchup all game, got rolled by 3 goals.

So you could say it was a fairly quiet weekend after that...

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As for the main game this week, I reckon its down to Geelong's forward line. Can Mooney stand up when it really counts or go back to old ingrown habits? Can Nathan Ablett get a kick to save himself without it being lace out? (I reckon he will still play, they won't go with Hawkins) Can they rely on Stokes to kick another two or three in a quarter? If any number of these turn in the Cats favour they will win.

[Andrew]

Long time commenter first time reader. Is The Age biffing your stuff?

Five-star performance
ANY footy league beat these magnificent set of finals numbers? In the Upper Great Southern league in Western Australia, Wickepin finished third and then proceeded to win the first semi, the preliminary and the grand final — ALL by five points.

[Andrew]

It's here.

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/shades-of-63-grand-final/2007/09/24/1190486226523.html?page=2

[Tony T.]

Wicky: Strictly speaking I tipped Gee-Long, but not with absolute conviction.

13: I didn't know Wilson was out until well after I'd written the post, but had I known it I would certainly have mentioned his loss as an important factor. And yes, M. Christian is a dismal commentator whose continued employment is yet another pointer to the chronic lack of depth in the Aussie Rules commentating ranks.

Carn: As an MCC member, I remember those MCG shaftings fondly. I thought everyone loved Bobby Davis.

Ann: I just wish Carey would sit still; or at least keep his noggin from bobbin about when he's trying to make a point. It's as if he's trying to look at all the other panelists and the camera at the same time.

Adsy: Yeah, the Catters need to get their forward line in order. There's no way they can take it in there in the same haphazard way they did last Friday and hope to win. Port will crucify them coming back the other way.

Andrew: As it happens, the Age didn't pinch it, I gave it to them. Here's part of the email I wrote:

In another WA league, the Upper Great Southern, Wickepin finished third and won the First Semi, the Preliminary and the Grand Final ALL by 5 points.

I don't mind they didn't credit me, or even that they virtually quoted me word-for-word, the journo I passed it on to is a top bloke.

[Francis Xavier Holden]

I know fuck all about football and care about it even less, but I think the comment about the team taking the break taking a while to rev up, besides being the only bit I understood above, may be spot on.

As evidence I cite the recent Bob Dylan concerts in Melbourne. The Bob concert on the Friday night was very very good. Bob had Saturday night off. When I went on the Sunday night the concert Bob gave was good but not very very good. I concluded that the rest break was not good for The Bobsta's playing ability.

[carneagles]

Davis was heavily critical of the Eagles back in the late 80's, when it dawned on him that Geelong could no longer just stroll into WA and pick up the next Polly Farmer or Bomber Peake.

[Ann O'Dyne]

Bobbing-Head Carey has to watch all the doors to see if anyone's husband is gonna burst through one of 'em.

[Tony T.]

Very true. I wonder if, like W. Bill Hickock, he always sits with his back to the door.

[tONY]

...aces & eights...