Back in 1990, Melbourne won sixteen games, yet still managed to finish fourth courtesy of big seasons from Collingwood, Essendon and an emerging West Coast Eagles.
In that season Melbourne beat West Coast and Essendon twice, but lost to eventual premier Collingwood at their only meeting.
There are still a lot of Demon fans I know who reckon Melbourne were the best side that year, and yet Melbourne, after beating reigning premier Hawthorn in the Elimination Final were jumped by West Coast at Waverley after a bizarre confluence of draws, byes and injuries, and subsequently bundled out of the finals race.
Looks like the bad "luck" may be set to continue if what I've been saying for a month, and what Rohan Connolly's article in today's Age says, transpires ...
Saints or Demons face finals draw from hell
Six weeks from the end of the home-and-away season, the AFL top four is just about done and dusted.
As impressive and hard-fought as Geelong's 15-point win over Sydney at Skilled Stadium was yesterday, the Cats, two games and close to 10 per cent adrift of fourth-placed Melbourne, just don't have enough time left to close the gap.
But don't think for a moment that for St Kilda, the Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide and Melbourne, the last half-dozen games are something of a non-event. Because the way the finish to the regular season is shaping up, the so-called luxury of the double chance for the team that finishes third could, in fact, prove a death trap.
While the Saints, Lions, Power and Demons remain locked on 12 wins each for the moment, the draw gives the interstate pair the greatest chance of finishing on top of the ladder come round 22. And that will spell bad news indeed for the side unfortunate enough to finish third.
Brisbane has four of its last six games at the Gabba, another at the MCG against almost-certain wooden spooner Hawthorn, and perhaps its biggest test in round 18 against Sydney at the SCG.
On form, it should win them all. That would give the team seeking a fourth straight flag the minor premiership for the first time.
If the Lions somehow slip up, the Power, with three games at home, two of the other three against sides out of top-eight contention, and the other against arguably its favourite opponent in Essendon on a favoured venue at Telstra Dome, has the greatest chance of heading the table.
Whatever order they finish, with St Kilda and Melbourne both faced with a harder journey home, the Brisbane-Port top-of-the-ladder quinella looks a good bet.
That would mean that the Saints or Demons would finish third, sentencing them to a trip to the Gabba or AAMI Stadium for a qualifying final.
Lose that, and even if they managed to win a knockout semi the next week, it would be more than likely they would be back to the other of those two interstate venues for a preliminary final. And that is the finals draw from hell.
Finish second, and you can at least host your first final at home. Finish fourth, and while you'll have to go interstate in the first week, the contentious AFL-MCC ground contract means a victory will give you a home preliminary final, and even a loss, provided you survive week No. 2, at worst a preliminary on the neutral turf of the MCG.
For the top four, two of whom are separated by just half a percentage point, it makes not only wins, but the size of those victories, absolutely vital and the run home a matter of centimetres or seconds.
Remarkably, after 16 rounds, Brisbane and Port Adelaide have scored the same number of points - 1768 - while the Lions have conceded only five fewer points.
Had the Power scored another seven points against Hawthorn at the MCG, or conceded one less goal, they'd be sitting second this morning rather than in the potential hottest finals seat of them all.
In the bottom half of the eight, meanwhile, Fremantle's unexpected first win in Adelaide on Saturday night merely rubbed more salt into wounds that Carlton inflicted on the Kangaroos earlier in the day.
The Roos are a game out of the eight, having undone all the work of their inspiring win over Fremantle the previous weekend in Perth with one careless stumble against the Blues.
While Dean Laidley's side has a slightly better percentage than the three teams above it - the Dockers, Sydney and Essendon - it also has clearly a tougher final month than any of its immediate rivals, taking on Sydney at the SCG, St Kilda at Telstra Dome and Brisbane at the Gabba over the last four rounds.
Fremantle's reputation as the most unpredictable among the upper echelon of teams continues.
The Dockers don't have a fortress at Subiaco any more, having dropped five out of nine there this season, but have some decent scalps on the road, none more impressive than that of the Crows, still eminently capable on their day, regardless of their ladder position.
It was a victory that meant the difference between sixth and ninth place on the ladder. And one that makes the battle for the bottom half of the eight no less intriguing than the jockeying going on at the top.
First off can I just mention that if Melbourne win every game for the rest of the season, and thus finish above Port who they play in three weeks at AAMI, the following will be just a lot of nonsense.
Melbourne have had a good year to date, but that could all come to nought should they get bundled straight out of the finals race.
That is a distinct possibility should Brisbane and Port, both with relatively easy schedules -- there's no such thing as a "draw" -- finish one and two.
This would mean, on current standings, Melbourne v Port at AAMI and Brisbane v St Kilda at Gabba in week one.
Should both Melbourne and St Kilda lose, and then get through week two against the fifth to eighth qualifiers, Melbourne will play Brisbane at the Gabba because the Lions finished higher than Port, and St Kilda, because of the MCC allocation of a Preliminary Final, and in spite of finishing lower than Melbourne, will get a "home" final at the MCG.
Therefore, Rohan's right, it would be better to finish fourth than third. Absurd.
Never the less, I support the MCC position. The AFL signed the deal, and then ratified it in 2000, what's more, Melbourne have benefitted from the MCC Rule in 2002, so it would be a case of -- grit teeth -- what goes around, comes around.
BUT. There's another permutation not covered in Connolly's article.
This year the AFL owe the MCC THREE games in week one and the AFL have indicated to the MCC that they intend to fulfill that quota. That means if Melbourne finish third, in week one of the finals they will host a home match at the MCG against Port (Once again, on current standings).
Should they win that -- Melbourne have never lost to Port in Victoria, although I consider Port more of a threat this year than previously -- they will go straight into Preliminary Final week with a guaranteed home final against whoever makes it through as their opponent.
In that circumstance -- big smile -- the MCC Rule rocks!
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