PRE-EMPTIVE STEVE

The West Australian's Steve Butler:

Hall reported as Swans smash Eagles

In a remarkable off-the-play incident, [Barry] Hall - a renowned boxer - was shown on the stadium's big screen to have nailed Staker with a smashing left hook to the head which left the Eagle physically ill and holding his jaw after he had been helped to the sidelines by trainers.

Staker was left wishing he had learnt the art of the "anticipatory self-defence" that US Government officials have continually claimed was behind the pre-emptive search for weapons of mass distruction. Unfortunately the 23-year-old found one of Hall's when he wasn't even looking for them.

That colourful description is not all Butler served up. Here is the post-emptive last paragraph written after Brizroy stormed home:

West Coast take on Port Adelaide, who have a 0-4 record after blowing a huge lead against Brisbane this evening, next Sunday at Subiaco Oval. Sydney, who had a late scare with a right ankle injury to Jolly, will face a vastly tougher test against in-form regning premier Geelong at Skilled Stadium on Saturday.

Here is the pre-emptive last paragraph written before Brizroy stormed home and before he changed it:

With Port Adelaide showing good form in beating Brisbane at AAMI Stadium tonight, West Coast's plight will not get any easier in facing the Power at Subiaco Oval next Sunday. Sydney, who had a late scare with a right ankle injury to Jolly, will face a vastly tougher test against in-form regning premier Geelong at Skilled Stadium on Saturday.

Comments

[RT]

If it was Adam Goodes he'd get off.

Where is all your bloggers from the West of late, Tone? Been very quiet. Eagle got their tongue?

Turned over and watched that Port game. Saying to myself "Get outta here" every time Bradshaw, Travis & co topped their last play in the last qtr.

Demons? Well it is a six letter word beginning with D.

[Nick]

Is it a coincidence that 20/20 hindsight and talking out of one's arse are so commonly found together?

just finished reading moneyball (thanks to the commenter here who recommended it). I'm sure john buchanan and neil craig have read it too. If gideon haigh would write moneyball:cricket, it would be a best seller.

if tony wrote moneyball:melbourne...well, that would be a very different book.

[Professor Rosseforp]

I guess everybody remembers that anticipatory self-defence was thought of by Monty Python before the Yank Defence Forces thought of it -- the Welsh art of Llap Goch:
It is an ANCIENT Welsh ART based on a BRILLIANTLY simple I-D-E-A, which is a SECRET. The best form of DEFENCE is ATTACK (Clausewitz) and the most VlTAL element of ATTACK is SURPRISE (Oscar HAMMERstein). Therefore . . . the BEST way to protect yourself AGAINST any ASSAILANT is to ATTACK him before he attacks YOU . . . Or BETTER... BEFORE the THOUGHT of doing so has EVEN OCCURRED TO HIM!!! SO YOU MAY BE ABLE TO RENDER YOUR ASSAILANT UNCONSCIOUS BEFORE he is EVEN aware of your very existence!
Barry's claim of a "brain explosion" is a little suspect given that he took one and a half swipes before hammering home the left hook.

[Tony T]

Speaking of exploded brains: Barry Hall Gold at the YouTube comments page.

Ha ha! Fuck those West Coast poofters!

ILL BASH THAT CUNT

one punch a he would knock u out fag

your a homo

hahahahahah yeah sick one mate...have a go see what happens

Etc.

[Tony T]

Nick.

Moneyball, The Review by Tony T.

You must read the comments, many of which are quite excellent. But only quite.

[Tony T]

By the way, Prof, generations of pub brawlers have known "anticipatory self-defence" as "getting the first one in".

[Bruce]

And speaking for pre-emptive.

WTF was the press conference today about? Talk about full scale spin doctoring and damage control.

I don't know what he is worried about. The incident was 'in play' and only affected Staker temporarily. Another reprimand like in 2005 seems likely to this jaded tribunal watcher.

[nick]

Good review of a great book - I think the application to AFL probably pertains to the draft, and the players to pick from there. Look at the Crows - an aging list, with some past champions (esp McLeod) and a lot of no name players (although Scott will probably correct me on that). The Crows seem to do very well in the regular season for a team with no proven goalkicker (Fevola/Franklin/Brown), poor forward 50 marking (ever since Modra and Jarman left) and only the odd mercurial performance. They then get knocked out in the Finals....by Franklin, West Coast's ruck division etc. Hopefully the influx of $ and a little luck this year will get them through - but I see Franklin has shafted them again. It's a good weekend though - as Port are 0-4 and surely fumbling around for the spoon - they may even pinch it off Melbourne (sorry).

Cricket lends itself to application of the tenets in Moneyball. Calculated swinging at balls in the hitting zone (Hussey/Hayden), calculated zone bowling (Clark), and putting proven Shield/County players (Hussey, Hussey....) in to the Test side over young up and comers (Watto the Magnificent?, Tait?). One of the interesting things about the IPL (and face it, there won't be many) will be watching Warne coach against Buchanan. I could watch Warnie bowl all day - but I'd love to see his face if Buchanan's computer picked team of drones wipe Warnie's Mercurial Lotharios off the map.

[David Barry]

I'm really not convinced that there's much room for improvement in selection methods for Test cricket teams. You go with some combination of domestic stats and what you think when you look at the players. Michael Clarke was picked off an average of 36 or so for NSW and did well. Warne was picked off about ten first-class games (and eventually he turned out all right...). Doing well in county cricket means not a whole lot when you play for England (loads of examples). Doing poorly in county cricket doesn't prevent you from playing well for England (Marcus Trescothick averages mid-30's for Somerset but 43 for England).

Moneyball-type analysis could work in the IPL though, when managers will have to start putting dollar values on players. My first guess as to the set-up for this sort of an analysis would be:

- If you've got batsmen who can all average 20-25, then the only important thing is strike rate.
- The important thing for bowlers is economy rate.

Then you start doing comparisons. A batsman whose strike rate is 1 run per six balls higher than another would be worth about the same as a bowler whose economy rate is 0.7 runs lower than another. With all-rounders you'd compare to what would happen if you replaced him with a specialist.

It'd get pretty complicated with the restriction on foreign players distorting the prices. Lots of room for analysis there though.

[TimT]

Tony, I had no idea that you had a second career in acting!

[Tony T]

How did you know my real name was Helen Christinson?

[os]

RT, yep we've gone all quiet over here lately.

On Saturday, I thought "sod this for a game of soldiers, I think I'll pull out the blue and black scarf and watch the Force play the Tahs."

That was an excellent plan.

Then the bride sat down to watch the Dockers play the bottom team.

Life can seem very empty some weekends.

[TimT]

Elementary, my dear Watson Christinson. If you're really an actor in disguise, then what else would your name be?

[Tony T]

West Coast Karma is out to get Hall.

He should not have been allowed to play in the 2005 GF.

That much is given.

But since punching McGuire in the guts in the 2005 Preliminary Final and subsequently having his charge downgraded, he has played an absolute shocker in the 2006 GF and now is facing lengthy time on the sidelines after punching Staker in the face.

Prediction: 4 to 6 weeks.

[os]

It was an interesting punch. He wound up from in front of Staker, the length and alignment was already set by the time he had spun to face him, and clipped him clean as a whistle on the jaw. I wonder how deliberately premeditated it was, it was more of a jag than anything I reckon.
Also, before the brain explosion, Staker was holding him and before BBB tried to shrug the hold off, he had been calling to the ump to give him the protection he was entitled to from Staker's interference. He didn't get it because the ump subconsciously applies a different standard to a stronger player.
He decided to protect himself, and the synapses did the rest.

[Tony T]

You know what. I agree it was fluke hit. But that's not going to get him off.

[os]

Agree, he's a goner for sure and he knows it, he's done the mea culpa and asked them to give him a good whacking.
I feel very noble, putting Barry's case like that - just like Julian Burnside or Terry O'Gorman.