BETTER LATE THAN CLEVER

Aussie Rules is a contact sport, and in contact sports strength and collision are everything. So although a slightly harder, but still free-running, loose-man Port Adelaide won the 2004 premiership, in 2005, the side that best employs collision football will again come out on top. Just like sides have done in nearly every season since I remember; let's say 1970.

Couple this with the fact that Geelong and the non-Victorian sides, Adelaide excepted, will win enough games at home to set up their seasons and make the finals.

Bearing those two things in mind, and that no predictions can be made concerning injuries, here is my 2005 ladder.

1. Brisbane
   Smarting from the 2004 Grand Final when everything went Port's way (including the TV instigated Preliminary Final scheduling), expect Brisbane to again be hard to beat at the Gabba. The Lions are the kings of collision and should go very close to the premiership. What we saw on Thursday night means Brizroy again mean business.
   
2. St Kilda
   The Saints at their best play the best football in the competition. Grant Thomas also understands the importance of collisions at the contest. However a suspect lower end of their best twenty and a dubious backline means they will only be good enough in 2005 to better 2004’s gains by one position.
3. Port Adelaide
   The Power will again easily make the top four, but just like each year before 2004, their loose-man style of play will again prove their Achilles heel when the heat is on.
4. West Coast
   The Toaster’s great on-ballers and their home-ground advantage will again see them up in the top eight. But they don’t have enough in the way of forward power and would need stellar years from the likes of McDougall, Lynch and again from Matera to regularly kick enough goals in the big games away from home; read Grand Final.
5. Sydney
   A well coached, tight unit will win more than they lose, but they lack enough star-power to win the big games that deliver a premiership.
6. Geelong
   Play a terrific style of close checking footy, I'm a big wrap for the Catters. But despite recruiting Brad Ottens, they also lot Ben Graham and so are only  slightly better than break-even. Expect them also to lose a few more of those close games they won last year.
7. Fremantle
   They have a dubious style of play, what with their Port-like reliance on setting up the loose-man. But twelve games in Perth added to the inclusion of Josh Carr's toughness at the drop of the ball mean they will win enough to get into the finals. Must find a marking target up front. If anyone is to drop out of my eight, though, it wouldn’t surprise me if it was Freo.
8. Carlton
   In short; Dennis Pagan. The master of collision footy will help them sneak into the eight. They have an ordinary group of players, though, so while having Pagan at the helm is an enormous boost, they have too many hacks to take them up into the top four. Personally it was shattered when it was apparent Pagan would go to Carlton, because he, more than any other coach, has the ability to quickly take them up the ladder. Carlton on the bottom is good for (my) football.
9. Richmond
   A smokey. Terry Wallace is the key inclusion. He plays a cunning style of footy which will have the Tiges winning regularly, but a lack of very good players will mean they will lose too often to sustain a big year. Wallace, also, is far too keen on setting up the loose-man and doesn’t concentrate enough on winning the tough balls. Like Sydney and the Bulldogs, to name a couple, expect plenty of flooding. I wonder who is going to be Wallace's Libber-like attack-dog.
   
10. Essendon
    No Sheedy side whether it be as a player or as a coach, ever has a shocking year unless ravaged by injuries. Despite the light talent of their recent inclusions, expect them to win a fair share of games.
11. Collingwood
    Had a poor year last year when injuries played a big role and they couldn’t get their season going. But Mick Malthouse will have The Pies playing his accountable, smothering style and will get the best out of the list. Needs Rocca and Tarrant to have big years to capitalise on any good work up the ground.
12. Adelaide
    Who knows where Adelaide are going to finish. Can Neil Craig coach? Can the likes of Schuback, Jericho and Hentchel develop? I've only got them here because I can't figure out where in the bottom eight they are going to finish. But twelve games in Adelaide is always a bonus. They might even win the odd one against the top sides.
13. Melbourne
    Melbourne won five games last year courtesy of Richmond, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs retaining their coaches for one year too long. All three sides were rubbish which enabled Melbourne to get their season going. Couple that with wins against injury-hit Collingwood, Sydney, St Kilda and Port and a generally favourable draw and Melbourne were able to win enough games to make the eight. However, Neil Daniher is not the greatest devotee of collision football. So this year expect the other sides to crowd Melbourne's forward line and deprive the Dees of scoring opportunities. For Melbourne to defy my gloomy prediction, they need to get much better when the heat is on. And if they are as soft as they were at times last year, they are gone because most of the sides they beat last year will be better this year. Certainly if they lose tonight against Essendon their season will end up in the toilet. Naturally I hope I'm completely and utterly wrong.
    
14. Kangaroos
    Not too sureabout the Kangas. I'm not convinced Laidley has what it takes and I just don't think they have enough good players to make an impact on the season. Daniel Welles is a star, though, and an awesome player to watch.
    
15. Western Bulldogs
    With Rodney Eade coaching they will enjoy some good wins, but like the Kangas, they just don't seem to have enough good players. There's a good chance they'll finish higher, but in an amazingly even competition, I can't think who they'll displace to move up the ladder.
    
16. Hawthorn
    If you've had a good look at their list, you'll know why they are going to finish on the bottom.

Comments

[Tony.T]

Err ... umm ... well played, Kangas.

[Brett Pee]

Tony, you may be wrong about our forward power, there is quite a bit added extra this season. Matera is currently in his 'veteran' years but we have some big lumps coming through. Traveling, as ever, will remain our biggest bugbear.

[Scott Wickstein]

Can Neil Craig coach? Can the likes of Schuback, Jericho and Hentchel develop?

No and No. Will prove worse then Hawthorn, and will dispose of Craig by round 19.

[Brett Pee]

Oh, good start for the 'mons mate. But this will not be your season.

[Scott Wickstein]

How shit are the Bombers though? Craptacular. You'd struggle to beat Adelaide playing like that.

[Brett Pee]

Yeah....Bombers were Horsemeat, flimsy. Need changes. And Quickly.

[Tony.T]

Go 'Mons!

Bombers = very shithouse.

[Adam 1.0]

It's easy to roll a team with no forward line. I thought we were impressive enough given the circumstances but I'll be interested to see what happens when we run into the good sides. I think your prediction is slightly gloomy though - I see us remaining in pretty much the same place on the ladder as we were last year.

[Tony.T]

I'll hold my gloomy position until we play a side that aren't anywhere near as appalling as Essington were. They were diabolical! My Melbourne call might have been low, but my Ehhhhhhh - Seh - Don call was prpbably too high.

[AdventureGirl]

Go the Lions!!!! *raspberries* to the rest!!

[Tony.T]

Brizroy Loins, hiss!

[Far Car]

...but we have some big lumps coming through.

eg. Hanson. I've been saying it since day dot. "He is a big lunkhead and he's only gonna get bigger". He could easily become another Neitz or G-Train. Combined with that other lunkhead Lynch…

(How good was Hanson's game-sealer goal yesterday?)

Traveling, as ever, will remain our biggest bugbear.

Come from behind win at Football Park. Tick.

Saw David Schwarz and some other nitwit do a wrap-up of the Mons Dons game on the TV. The nitwit said that Troy Broadbridge's wife joined in "the festivities". Maybe it's just me, but I thought "solemn occasion" or something similar would have been more appropriate.

Then David Schwarz said the whole pre-match ceremony was "second rate". What a bloody comedy act.

(Obviously meaning to say "second-to-none" but tripping over his words. One of my favourite occupations when listening to sportspeople: spot the mixed metaphor.)

[Tony.T]

Hanson's goal was a beauty, but the free to give him the shot was a shocker. As was the one not paid at the other end and the mark not paid to Perrie. The Eagles had all the ball for the last ten minutes but they also had all the luck. Still, a good win by the Toasters.

Schwarz is a bit of a fat-head, but you'll get a massive headache picking up footballers (present and ex) for their mistakes.

[os]

Teach,

You've written at length in the past on the home ground advantage of teams like the Eagles, but I'm still not convinced it's an advantage that outweighs the "staying home" advantage of teams like Collingwood and the Mons. I saw the Magpie-Doggies game today (hey, the Dogs were GOOD) and on-screen they showed the Magpie program for the next 5 games. Including today, all of their first six games - with one exception - are at the MCG. The one exception is Telstra Dome.

How do you weigh that home-gound advantage against the travelling schedule of the Eagles and conclude that the Eagles get the better deal? It makes a big difference to recovery across the length of a season (not to mention a career) if you have a 3 hour flight after every second game.

Some years ago (I forget) Essendon won the flag and in the whole year they travelled 3 times. Once to Geelong, once to Adelaide and once to Sydney. All of the rest of their games were played in Melbourne, mostly at the G. By the time the GF came around they were very very fresh. I think it was a huge factor in their premiership.

[Tony.T]

The big thing about the Home Ground Advantage is that is gives a side a chance to set up their season. Granted it can be a bit difficult in the finals, but throughout the season, the non-Victorian sides have a huge advantage.

West Coast, if they get themselves well organised, can expect to win the majority of their twelve home games (say, 9). That means they've only got to win three away games (they've already wone won) to be virtually guaranteed of making the finals.

Melbourne, on the other hand, only play Freo, WC and Adelaide at the MCG this year. They play Sydney at Telstra, but there will be as many South fans there are Dees fans. The rest of the games Melbourne play in Victoria are against Victorian sides on what amounts to neutral venues.

[Brett Pee]

On second thoughts you may WELL be correct about a lack of forward power in our ranks- how very astute Tony. We're gonna rely on a very strong midfield, going by sunday's result. Too bloody close i reckon- although we have'nt won there for 10 years or so, the Crows will surely be pecking themselves for not finishing us off. they will be pretty pissed, but do i care ?

Actually, the travelling/home advantage arguments and counter arguments kinda balance up in the long run. We have some advantages but the travelling is a drag, every other game a long flight etc etc. It's bloody hard to remain full focus and stay in top match shape, unlike remaining mostly in one state. But this year i sense a determination to grind out games on the road and play the more expansive stuff at our place. Will this win us the flag? Tough- after all there are some pretty free scoring sides out there, but we'll see.

Our strength in midfield to the fore with Danny Kerr a player to watch out for this season- he is gonna be one of the most improved blokes around, will make a big impact, along with Wirrpundas pushes from the back.

But, The cats could go on to win by some HUGE margins, more than you reckon Tony. I know their oppo was pure catmeat first up, but they will kick a huge amount of goals.Weaknesses ????

[Tony.T]

With the Eag's forward line, I reckon it will depend on who you play.

On the weekend Adelaide got numbers back to clog up the space for Hanson and co to work in and in the end, Adelaide probably should have won. However, when it comes to flooding back, if you do it for too long your scoring opportunities dry up because you haven't got eanyone to give it to on the way back through the centre. And then when Burton went off, WC started to dominate around the guts.

I've mentioned the Home/Away thing above, but suffice it to say, I think the large number of outright home ground advantages afforded the non--Victorian clubs weighs in their favour over the course of a season.

The Catters are very good and I might have to do a mid-season review of my ladder prediction. They smothered Richmond, but, well, the Tiges were awful.

[Martin Pike]

Any Victorian who sees one of those violent monkeys from Brisbane crossing a road is morally obliged to grind their cro-magnon bodies into the tarmac.

AFL talk about reform has been shown to be a complete litany of lies by the non-reaction to the shoulder-buster moves on Riewoldt.

[Tony.T]

To be absolutely frank, I don't know which way I lean.

On one hand I look at Michael & Scott and think "what a couple of turds" and on the other I think "it would be nice if there were a couple of those players at Melbourne".

Really, though, I don't think there was anything the new AFL Games Review Panel could charge them with. And I don't think the AFL are going to come over the top.

[Brett Pee]

As thommo said- the ground was hard. A bloke can get seriously crook falling over on that sunbaked turf.

Did the Umps act at the time ? Did they blow up ? No. It's a tough game- apparently far tougher in the 70's, but tough nevertheless.

[Tony.T]

Thommo's really just gotta wear it, otherwise he'll look like a whinger.

Interesting to see if St Kilda toughen up for the return bout. They've got one or two players who flinched when the heat was on.

[Adam 1.0]

So much whinging about the Riewoldt incident. 30 years ago they would have cut his shoulder open with a concealed blade, poured a vial of mustard gas into it, hit him over the head with a screwdriver and buried him under lime beneath the Windy Hill grandstand.

People should be thankful that the game is so pissweak that this is the most violent issue that's being discussed.

[Tony.T]

Footy's certainly changed.

It didn't worry me what Scott and Michael did, but I still think they are arseholes. I wish Melbourne had arseholes like that.

Arseholes win. Always have.

[Brett Pee]

All teams NEED arseholes-and good arseholes at that. Or bad ones. Things were worse 25-30 years back ? Some nasty things must have occured in them olden days- any chance of that returning ? The game needs toughening up- i, myself have suffered the 'indignity' of being cited. I only targetted their key bloke with a crook knee, put him out of the game and we won by 30. He missed the rest of the season but job done.

[Far Car]

McManus can be a right panicky no-talet idiot at times. Anyone else noticed that?

[Tony.T]

I noticed that.

Jeez he coughed up that last kick forward. Connolly has to take some of the blame for having a soft system. McManus should have banged it long.

And Freo should have been able to hang on but the Saints had most of the footy in the last fifteen minutes and if Kozshitski hadn't missed that sitter, the Sints would have won by more than a point.

McGuire was important in that last stage.

[Far Car]

Jeez he coughed up that last kick forward.

James Hird would have nailed a six-pointer at goalpost height. That was a woeful kick. Fucking awful.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Freo fan having a dummy spit. I'm not a Freo fan, period. But nothing gets me more in a lather that AFL players lacking FUNDAMENTAL SKILLS.

……Although depending what mood I'm in, sometimes I love it because it gives me so much of a laugh. McManus, Spriggs, and Eagleton are three of the worst going around at the moment. (Richardson, Fewster, Sierakowski, Wilson. How I miss you jokesters!)

[Tony.T]

Freo have some top players, but I reckon their system sucks. If they don't go well this year Connolly will come under some real pressure. McManus kicking it like he did reeks of a player unsure of what he should have done.

I laugh at bad kickers, too. But only when they're playing in other teams. I hit the roof, seat, floor, TV, wall or whatever is nearby whenever Melbourne players stuff up kicks.

[a guy in pajamas]

I played Aussie Rules Football once. I felt quite lucky I was able to walk off the field at the end of the game.

It should have been a warning when someone asked what to do if an opposing team member got the ball and the Aussie teaching the few Yanks and Canucks there how to play said "kill him" with a perfectly straight face.

Next time I'm invited to play, I'll bring a shotgun.

[Tony.T]

Don't you say that over there, PJ? You know, the coach says "When you get out there, kill 'em." Or in response to a result you say "We got killed!" Or "We got murdered!"

It's just not a proper game without there's some regular killing, you understand.

[a guy in pajamas]

Yep, we say it, and that's probably what fooled me. I didn't realize the Australians were serious when they said it.

Anyway, the game highlights were: I scored a touchdown, which resulted in being attacked by my own teammates, D. broke a rib, a couple of us ran over a family having a picnic, and some children playing nearby were frightened witless, but otherwise unharmed. (Mostly.)

The physical damage has healed, but the emotional scars ... I think M. is still going to counseling for PTSD.

[Tony.T]

Sounds tough, and not a little confusing. But at least you scared some children. Tick. VG.

[a guy in pajamas]

You think that's confusing, just wait til I tell you about cricket!

[Tony.T]

I challenge you to describe cricket WITHOUT any reference to baseball.

[Brett Pee]

'Eags lookin' fair so far- can only improve, four out of four. Wirrapunda been highlight of the seson so far with some mature displays and bursts from the back. A couple more decent players and we will be pretty convincing front runners i reckon. How to stop the 'Mons ? Reckon we will overpower you through the middle Tony- cut off your supply lines and dominate this area.

[Trystan Caley]

Hay the eagles r the best ever no one can bet them they r gonna win the grand final this year no doot about it CAN THE EAGELS

[Tony.T]

Yay Can Eagels! Yay Trys! Yay .. dood!

[carneagles]

*sobs quietly*